Survey in Florida affirms that more Latinos align with the Republican Party

Among Hispanic voters in Florida, inflation (23%), followed by jobs and the economy (12%) dominate the topics ahead of the November 8 elections, according to a national survey published by American Media, considered the first network national conservative in Spanish of the United States.

Both issues coincide with the top priorities of Hispanic voters in the country, and in a state where 14.4 million voters are registered as of September 30. Of those, 5.2 million (36%) identify as Republicans and 4.9 million as Democrats (28%), while 3.9 million have no party affiliation (27%).

The survey indicates that the GOP could benefit from a “deep realignment” of Hispanic voters, and could add swing voters worried about the economy.

“Our survey shows that while 14 percent of Hispanics are still undecided, half are strongly inclined to vote for the Republican Party in the midterm elections,” said the executive director of Americano Media, Iván García-Hidalgo. “In some close races, these undecided Hispanic voters can make their decision on the same day as the vote. We believe this indicates a possible increase in the Hispanic vote for Republican candidates.”

The American Media poll reveals what García-Hidalgo called “a perfect storm of frustration and pessimism among Hispanics undecided with the economic policies of President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, who are more motivated than ever to vote.”

“Our survey confirms the turn to the right of Hispanic voters,” says García-Hidalgo. “We found that number could increase on Election Day.”

With 43 percent of respondents self-identifying as Democrats and 27 percent as Republicans, Democrats lead the congressional race 50% to 36%, with 14 percent undecided split evenly between the two parties and independents. It is a notable difference with previous elections, considering that this margin of 14 points is less than the 30% of 2020 and the 40% of 2018.

Biden contra Trump

Among the majority Democrat Hispanic voter, President Joe Biden is the only national politician with a positive image rating.

Pollsters noted that, “as expected,” Biden would win among Hispanics against Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 contest, with a 54% vote share versus 37%.

In 2020, Trump -who tried to annul the election due to alleged electoral fraud- obtained 32% of Latino support, even when he carried out a campaign full of insults against Latinos-, while Biden was benefited by promising a comprehensive immigration reform that until now has fulfilled.

The American Media survey indicates that “surprisingly”, the advantage that Biden had over Trump among Hispanics in 2020 has been reduced by half and that Biden also leads among Democrats in a theoretical primary confrontation, surpassing the former first lady , Michelle Obama, who finished second, with 14% compared to 36% for the current president.

In a theoretical matchup in the Republican presidential primary, Trump would beat Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 48/30.

Still, according to Americano Media's Florida-focused investigation, DeSantis would edge his gubernatorial re-election opponent, Rep. Charlie Crist, among Hispanics 49/45.

While DeSantis is rated 52% favorable and 44% unfavorable, among Florida Hispanics, Crist is 40/46, showing that many Hispanic independents and Democrats plan to vote for DeSantis.

On the other hand, in a survey conducted by the University of North Florida, De Santis has an advantage of up to 14 points over the Democratic candidate (55% against 41%).

Economy and inflation

A large majority of Hispanics (71%) believe that the country, like the economy, is headed in the wrong direction. The economy is top of mind for this demographic, with inflation and jobs standing out at 40 percent as the top priority. Among Hispanics, the economy completely overshadows the social issues the media often focuses on. In fact, by a 65/31 margin, inflation is more important than abortion in deciding your vote.

AmericanoMedia's poll was conducted Oct. 11-20 among 1,200 registered Hispanic voters and has a 2.8 percent margin of error.

The team also sampled Hispanic registered voters in Florida on state-specific issues. It was done in English and Spanish, with 78 percent responding in English and 22 percent in Spanish.

Other Findings Among Florida Voters

Inflation is prioritized over abortion rights by a huge 67/28 margin when compared head to head.

• In addition, more than 2/3 of Hispanic voters in Florida say that the rising cost of living is causing them financial problems, and 41% consider those problems to be important.

• Food (36%), followed by housing (28%) and gas prices (21%), are the main concerns about cost of living increases. Home prices are a bigger concern among Hispanic voters in Florida than they are nationally.

57% say abortion should always or mostly be legal versus 38% who say it is always or mostly illegal.